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Excerpt from The Unpopular Review, Vol. 8: October-December, 1917
The decrease differed from natural processes in general, in that it was not a gradual subsidence to a lower level, but a sudden fall, as if some barrier had given way. It is peculiar, too, in the rather even maintenance of the new level. Until the present war, too, there has been little like even a temporary return to the old conditions.
How the authors with this chart before them could have asked their question: Is War Diminishing? Is to us a puzzle. Perhaps an answer might be: Not in the usual sense of tapering off, but about two centuries ago wars gave a sudden slump to a somewhat uniform average of about a sixth of that for the preceding three centuries. They thickened up again for about thirty years around 1800, and then relapsed to their preceding average, until the present great outbreak.
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